Aaron Judge is off to a red-hot start in 2025, boasting a .396 batting average through the Yankees’ first 49 games. But while fans dream of a historic season, the sportsbooks are keeping their feet firmly planted. Despite his torrid pace, oddsmakers are giving Judge almost no shot to become the first player in over eight decades to hit .400 across a full MLB season.
A historic pace that fools no one
Even as Aaron Judge barrels his way through pitching staffs across the league, his odds of making history remain microscopic. After his average dipped just below .400 on Thursday, DraftKings Sportsbook adjusted its odds accordingly. Judge now sits at +7500 to end the season at or above .400, translating to a mere 1.32% implied chance — hardly inspiring confidence from the betting public.
Of course, skepticism is warranted. No one has finished an MLB season batting .400 or better since the legendary Ted Williams posted a .406 average in 1941. The feat has become almost mythological, a benchmark of hitting prowess that generations have failed to meet despite eye-popping individual efforts.
Why .400 remains untouchable
Judge’s performance so far has been extraordinary, but history offers sobering context. Only two players since Williams — George Brett in 1980 (.390) and Tony Gwynn in 1994 (.394 before the season was cut short by a strike) — have come even remotely close. In the modern era, the offensive environment, increasing pitch velocity, and bullpen specialization have made maintaining a high batting average over a full season nearly impossible.
In fact, since 2000, no player has posted a season average higher than Barry Bonds’ .370 in 2002. Names like Ichiro Suzuki, Nomar Garciaparra, and Todd Helton have flirted with greatness, but .400 remained just out of reach. Even in an age of offensive resurgence and juiced baseballs, consistency at that level has proven elusive.
Triple Crown: A more realistic milestone?
While the odds are stacked against a .400 season, Judge’s bid for the American League Triple Crown is very much alive — and even favored by some betting markets. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has him at +155 to pull off the rare achievement. With a league-leading 44 RBIs, a share of the AL home run lead (16), and the best batting average to date, he’s already pacing the competition across all three categories.
The Triple Crown — awarded to a player who leads the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs — has only been accomplished once since 1967, when Miguel Cabrera did it in 2012. If Judge maintains his current trajectory, he could be on track to join that exclusive club.
The weight of expectation and the grind of the season
Judge, now in his early 30s, has matured into one of baseball’s most consistent offensive forces. His size and power are legendary, but his improved plate discipline and ability to hit to all fields have contributed to his gaudy average this season. Still, maintaining such numbers for 162 games is a monumental task.
Injuries, fatigue, and slumps inevitably creep in. Opposing pitchers begin to adjust. Scouting reports grow longer. Even with Judge’s physical gifts and veteran savvy, the grind of the MLB season is a statistical equalizer. That’s why oddsmakers are staying cautious. They recognize the challenge and its near impossibility — even for someone of Judge’s caliber.
Greatness in perspective
Whether or not Judge flirts with .400 deep into the season, he’s already put together a run worth celebrating. And while bettors and historians may scoff at the idea of him reaching Ted Williams territory, fans can still revel in the greatness unfolding at Yankee Stadium. A Triple Crown? Very possible. A .400 average? Unlikely, but not unwatchable.
After all, the beauty of baseball lies in its unpredictability — and in players like Aaron Judge, who make the impossible feel just a little bit within reach.
