The race for the 98th Academy Awards nominations is officially underway, propelled by a strong slate of auteur-driven dramas, high-concept thrillers, and a massive musical franchise opener. Leading the predictive pack are Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘One Battle After Another,’ Ryan Coogler’s ‘Sinners,’ and Chloé Zhao’s ‘Hamnet,’ all of which have secured major pre-cursor recognition from organizations like the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. This awards cycle is distinguished by the strength of its technical achievements and the inclusion of major box-office performers like the musical ‘Wicked: For Good.’ With the nominations set to be revealed in January 2026, the current predictions point to a highly competitive, star-studded field that will define the year in cinematic achievement.
The Leading Triumvirate: Best Picture Frontrunners
Current expert predictions consistently place three films at the top of the Best Picture contenders list, each representing a distinct style of major cinema.
‘One Battle After Another,’ the latest work from Paul Thomas Anderson, is positioned as a powerhouse across multiple categories, capitalizing on its ensemble cast and critical acclaim. Similarly dominant is ‘Sinners,’ directed by Ryan Coogler, which has garnered significant nominations and is riding a wave of early-year box office and critical success. Finally, ‘Hamnet,‘ Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, continues to hold strong as a major contender, particularly in the acting and adapted screenplay categories. These three films, along with others like ‘Marty Supreme,’ ‘Sentimental Value,’ and Guillermo del Toro’s ‘Frankenstein,’ are expected to fill the majority of the slots in the expanded Best Picture category.
The Auteur Showdown: Best Director Predictions
The Best Director race is shaping up to be a dramatic battle among established cinematic voices, with Paul Thomas Anderson maintaining his predicted frontrunner status.
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another is widely tipped to secure a nomination, if not the win. However, strong challenges are mounted by Ryan Coogler for Sinners and Chloé Zhao for Hamnet, both of whom are previous nominees or winners with compelling critical narratives this season. Other filmmakers heavily featured in predictions include Guillermo del Toro for his Netflix feature Frankenstein and Joachim Trier for the foreign-language contender Sentimental Value. The race also features potential surprises, such as Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident, who has earned significant critical body attention.
The Acting Races: Newcomers and Veterans Align
The four acting categories feature an exciting mix of veteran stars and highly acclaimed breakout performances, promising a compelling field of nominees.
In the Best Actor race, Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another and Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme are generating the most sustained buzz, alongside Michael B. Jordan for Sinners. The Best Actress category is fiercely competitive, with Jessie Buckley for Hamnet and Cynthia Erivo for the musical Wicked: For Good cited as major contenders. The supporting races are just as tight, with Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good and Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another predicted for nominations in Best Supporting Actress, while Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein and Paul Mescal for Hamnet are strong bets for Best Supporting Actor.
Technical and Franchise Strength: The ‘Wicked’ Factor
The highly anticipated musical sequel, ‘Wicked: For Good,’ is predicted to make its biggest impact in the technical and craft categories, along with a key acting nomination.
While not expected to compete seriously in the Best Picture category, the film is a predicted frontrunner in major technical categories such as Costume Design, Production Design, Sound, and Makeup and Hairstyling, where it directly competes with Frankenstein. Its strong showing in the nominations will be secured by Ariana Grande’s potential nod in Supporting Actress and a likely nomination for Best Original Song. Furthermore, blockbusters like ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ are also predicted to secure several nominations in the visual and sound categories, underscoring the Academy’s recognition of commercial cinema’s technical achievements.
Host, Date, and The March Ceremony
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is confirmed for its traditional Spring date and will feature the return of a recently popular host.
The ceremony is scheduled to take place on Sunday, March 15, 2026, broadcast live on ABC from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Following a successful debut, comedian and late-night host Conan O’Brien is confirmed to return as the host for the 98th Academy Awards. This marks a vote of confidence in his “refreshingly madcap” style and his ability to balance humor with reverence for the industry’s highest honors.
